They will never be able to sink an Estonia model using JAIC data. It will always float upside down. So what about any simulations to sink the Estonia? They have to change the whole JAIC fairy tale!
-- Anders Björkman, M.Sc.

12 years later: Dr. Claes Källström, SSPA, calls for an honest Estonia investigation
Sent: Friday, July 07, 2006 12:49 PM
From: Dr. Claes Källström, SSPA Sweden AB, Vice President, Head of SSPA Research
To: selected group
Research Study on Sinking Sequence of MV Estonia
Dear Colleague,
This is an invitation to provide any substantive information in written form for consideration in explaining the circumstances of the sinking sequence of the MV Estonia. Any information provided will be carefully considered by a research consortium, lead by SSPA Sweden, which is currently carrying out a study for VINNOVA, in its capacity as Swedish Governmental Agency responsible for the national Sea Safety Programme. The aim of the project is to present the most likely foundering scenario of the MV Estonia. The results will be used for improving maritime safety for the passenger ships of today and in future. A special two stage research call resulted in the commissioning of two consortia to do one research study each.
The SSPA Consortium is coordinated by SSPA Sweden AB in Gothenburg, Sweden, and the partners are: SSRC (Ship Stability Research Centre) / Safety at Sea Ltd, Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering, Universities of Glasgow and Strathclyde in Glasgow, UK (acting as Technical Co-ordinators of the project); MARIN (Maritime Research Institute Netherlands) in Wageningen, the Netherlands; and the Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden.
For more information, see the attached Project Description, or visit the Project’s website:
http://www.safety-at-sea.co.uk/mvestonia
where it is also announced that to aid the progress of this study, the SSPA Consortium invites any substantive information to be provided in written form for consideration in explaining the circumstances of the loss of the MV Estonia. If deemed beneficial, and agreeable to those involved, further dialog will be initiated with the contributing parties. The information provided to this consortium will be made available publicly through the website, or other media, after due scrutiny. The information can be sent electronically to:
mvestonia@safety-at-sea.co.uk
or in other formats to the address given on the website.
Please don’t hesitate to contact me, or any other project partner, if you have any questions.
With best regards,
Claes Källström
Vice President
Head of SSPA Research, Project Manager
SSPA Sweden AB
E-mail: claes.kallstrom@sspa.se
Direct/mobile telephone: +46 31 772 9050
Web Site: www.sspa.se

SSPA Consortium: Research Study on Sinking Sequence of MV Estonia
Project Summary
Background
The Swedish Government has assigned VINNOVA (The Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems) in its capacity as responsible for the national Sea Safety Programme to commission a research project with the aim to study the sinking sequence of MV Estonia. The results will be used for maritime safety for the passenger ships of today and in the future. A special research call in two steps has resulted in the commissioning of two consortia to do one research study each.
The SSPA Consortium is coordinated by
- SSPA Sweden AB in Gothenburg, Sweden
The partners are:
- SSRC (Ship Stability Research Centre) / Safety at Sea Ltd, Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering, Universities of Glasgow and Strathclyde in Glasgow, UK; acting as Technical Co-ordinators of the project.
- MARIN (Maritime Research Institute Netherlands) in Wageningen, the Netherlands.
- Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden.
The project is supported by 8 million SEK (about 865 000 Euro).
The other consortium is coordinated by HSVA, Hamburgische SchiffbauVersuchsanstalt GmbH (Hamburg Ship Model Basin) in Hamburg, Germany.
Aims and objectives
The overall goal of the research study is to understand the sinking sequence and explain the underlying causes of the loss of MV Estonia and hence derive suitable recommendations on design and operation of passenger vessels in order to prevent such tragedy from happening again.
Results and impact
The results and impact are expected to be improved understanding of the mechanisms and the underlying causes of the loss of MV Estonia and of the key contributing design and operational factors, thus providing the basis and the motivation for significant safety improvement of Ro-Ro passenger ships.
Implementation of Plan and Methodology
The proposed approach combines a wealth of ship design, analytical modelling, computer simulation and experimentation expertise, deployed to scrutinize and review the available evidence, to synthesise this into loss hypotheses, to test these hypotheses through first-principles modelling studies, and to finally demonstrate the established scenario of the loss through a physical experiment and through virtual modelling and simulation.
Brief Project Plan
The project period is between 1st March, 2006, and 17th March, 2008.
The project milestones are:
- Review of evidence and numerical models, definition of foundering scenarios and test program completed.
- Systematic experiments and CFD computations related to the MV Estonia foundering completed.
- Modelling of MV Estonia and first round of simulations, identification of most probable loss scenarios, and definition of model tests details completed.
- Simulations and model test demonstrations of the sinking sequence completed, results and recommendations summarized in the final report.
Contacts
Claes Källström, Project Manager, SSPA Sweden, +46 31 772 9050 claes.kallstrom@sspa.se www.sspa.se
Dracos Vassalos, Technical/scientific Co-ordinator, SSRC, +44 141 548 4092 d.vassalos@na-me.ac.uk www.ssrc.na-me.ac.uk
Andrzej Jasionowski, Safety at Sea Ltd, +44 141 572 5572
a.jasionowski@safety-at-sea.co.uk www.ssrc.na-me.ac.uk
Jan de Kat, MARIN, +31 317 493405
J.O.deKat@marin.nl www.marin.nl
Olle Rutgersson, Chalmers, +46 31 772 2683
olle.rutgersson@chalmers.se www.chalmers.se
Announcement
More information is available on the project website
http://www.safety-at-sea.co.uk/mvestonia
where it is also announced that to aid the proceeding of this study, the SSPA Consortium invites any substantive information to be provided in written form for consideration in explaining the circumstances of the loss of the MV Estonia. If deemed beneficial, and is agreeable, further dialog will be initiated with the contributing parties. The information provided to this consortium will be made available publicly through this site, or other media, after due scrutiny. The information can be sent electronically to
mvestonia@safety-at-sea.co.uk
or in other form to the address given on the website.

Cheshire Cat, how deep in the rabbit hole should I look?
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